8
Introduction
Table 3. Risk Factors for Diagnosed AF
Condition Study type Effect on risk of AF
Risk factors
Advancing age • Systematic
review (SR)/
meta-analysis
(MA)
• Age per 5 y: risk hazard ratio
(HR, 1.43–1.66)
• Mendelian
randomization
(MR)
• Accelerated epigenetic age by MR:
no association
Smoking • Single study
• Current smoking : risk (9.8%)
• SR/MA
• Smoking : risk (HR, 1.21–1.43)
• MR
• Smoking initiation: risk odds ratio (OR, 1.11)
Physical
activity
• SR/MA
• Sedentary lifestyle: risk (OR, 2.47)
• Guideline-recommended physical activity:
risk (HR, 0.94)
• Elite athletes vs. nonathletes: risk (OR, 2.46)
Alcohol • Single studies • Risk of AF episode within 4 h of 1 drink:
risk (OR, 2.02)
• Greater access to alcohol law: risk
• SR/MA • Dose response (#drinks/day):
risk relative risk (RR)
• 1: 1.08; 2: 1.17; 3: 1.33; 4: 1.36; 5: 1.47
• MR • Genetically predicted heavy alcohol
consumption (>35 U/week for women and
>50 U/week for men): risk (OR, 1.11)
Adiposity
markers:
weight, body
mass index
(BMI), obesity
• Single study • Obesity: population attributable fraction
12.7%–16.9%
• SR/MA
• BMI: RR, 1.28 per 5-unit in BMI
• Weight: HR, 1.12 per 15 kg
• MR • Obesity
• Birthweight: 1.26 per SD
• Childhood BMI, (OR, 1.18)
• BMI 1.31 per unit BMI
2.1.2. Risk Factors and Associated Heart Disease
